Rotten Carrot, Permanent Stick
Last month I'd written about the core issues around the US-Indo Nuclear deal. Yesterday the House of Representatives in the US Congress cleared the Nuclear Deal with 298 out of 415 members voting in favor. With only ten Republicans against it, most of the opposition (107 votes) came from the Democrats. It might be insightful to study the fund-raisers and contributions by the neo-conservative USINPAC to those who voted in favor. Even though the US Senate still has to clear it, after a 71% vote from Congress chances are that this is a done deal. And we are done for as Manmohan tells Bush:
“Mr. President, People of India deeply love you”.
In my initial rage I hurled abuses at both the huggers, especially the turbaned one for having the audacity to lick ass of a depraved criminal using our name, but soon returned to sanity. There is enough insanity going on. At least the turbaned one is displaying some emotion which is otherwise comparable to that of a paper-weight.
It is time for some somber realizations.
Death of NPT (R.I.P)
The US and India have jointly, as a singular force, destroyed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty for good. Since India was never a signatory to the NPT, some Indian readers may think that it doesn't matter much because the treaty was biased. India's principal argument against the NPT was that it recognized an elite Nuclear Club which sought to stop others from proliferating but didn't hold such a standard to itself. India was against the duplicity. So instead of not participating in it, India has colluded with it and axed the entire global effort to stop the proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. We can expect more tests from North Korea, Pakistan or even other nations who are/were part of the NPT. Even though I'm sure the Indian media will not pay much attention to it, if you keep your eyes and ears attuned to International press, you will hear India cited whenever someone violates the NPT.
Why does it matter? India should only care about its National Interest, right? If India is a rising power and has a global platform to speak from, this act shows that Indian foreign policy is as duplicitous as the US. India has no vision for a better world. It is very willing to push its narrow interests over larger global issues of non-proliferation. Ironically, it is this kind of hypocrisy that India sought to hide behind when refusing to sign the NPT.
The Zugzwang
The US is the undisputed superpower so it makes sense to be closely aligned with it. Besides India and the US have major economic interests in each others economies and being democracies its better if our borders were open to each other for land, labor, capital and ideas.
That's all dandy and can surely serve as a decent brief to a PR agency tasked with spinning out some nice pamphlets but its a sophism, on foreign policy level, that such a relationship would be one of equals. There is a zugzwang in the 123 Agreement which basically puts India at US mercy.
Article 14.4 states:
Following the cessation of cooperation under this Agreement, either Party shall have the right to require the return by the other Party of any nuclear material, equipment, non-nuclear material or components transferred under this Agreement and any special fissionable material produced through their use. A notice by a Party that is invoking the right of return shall be delivered to the other Party on or before the date of termination of this Agreement.
We know the party which can ever demand equipment back is the US since they are the ones who will supply most of it. It is estimated that India will meet 25% of its energy needs through nuclear technology by 2025. As this share of India's dependence on Nuclear Energy gets larger, the dagger of this clause only gets sharper.
There is no reason to presume that the US will want to withdraw from this deal but there is every reason to assume that the US will expect India to accommodate its interests in the South Asian region or else... The zugzwang occurs as India gets more and more dependent on US equipment and supplies. It will often be asked to entertain a particular US foreign policy request. India might prefer to pass on it but will be increasingly unable to do so for fear of the "or else..." factor. That is the cost of the Hyde Act's special exemption (read favor) as India becomes the pawn of US policy for China and its war in Pakistan and Afghanistan. And yes, we will see a lot more unwanted favors from the US in the nuclear sphere as our debt of gratitude escalates. The Indian media will of course keep spinning it as a good thing.
I'm not being alarmist here. Looking at the US government's foreign policy track record of keeping promises we should be wary. In this game the US has less to lose and because of the terms of this agreement the longer we play the more we stand to lose.
India is geographically closer to China but culturally closer to America. If push comes to shove India will most certainly choose America but that time of choice was not now and certainly not via the US military complex.
Uncle Sam, may I have some guns?
Arms sales are one of America's largest industry. The US has often sold to both sides in a conflict: Turkey-Greece, Iran-Iraq, India-Pakistan. For all the poetic nonsense we hear about the need for arms control, the US administration is directly responsible for escalating an arms race in this part of the world. On the one hand, India will shell out contracts worth billions of dollars for getting Civilian Nuclear Equipment, it will also be prompted to buy more arms from the US. It would be revealing to look at Pakistan's and China's arms spending over the next few months in response to this deal. Also expect China to voice solidarity with Pakistan and perhaps offer assistance on a similar program.
As clean as it gets
We can kiss goodbye to making cleaner forms of energy a reality. Some token money will be set aside for research but no one will pay attention to it and most of it will be wasted by corrupt bureaucrats. The cleanliness of Nuclear energy will be harped about as if its the next best thing after sliced bread. Expect knee-jerk reactions that N.Energy is as clean as it gets.
As we munch on this rotten carrot, it is time to realize that we have entered a marriage of abuse.
And Mr. Bush, a lot of people in India find you despicable and a shame for what you have done to the world and everything we loved about America. This is only some us who protested when you came here.
2 responses
Have your say
I have to disagree with most of this post. Iran is a signatory to the NPT and let's see how it can stop it from developing its own nuclear arsenal. And why should India worry about the death of the NPT anyway? We still maintain the position that it is a discriminatory treaty.\nThe 123 agreement applies to US-Indian nuclear trade. We are free to do nuclear trade with all of the NSG members and we can negotiate individual agreements with each supplier country protecting our interests, so that the power of the US to throttle our nuclear infrastructure can be diminished.\nThe reality on the ground is that no matter how many of us hate America, it is the worlds only superpower and being on good terms with it can help us achieve growth, which is what really matters.
Sagarone: I cannot say with certainty if the US or the world can/could stop Iran but this deal has only aggravated the situation and further undermined that possibility.\n\nI believe I've stated my position of why I think the NPT is/was important. Even if India thinks the NPT efforts are discriminatory it doesn't mean we undermine them to having no effect at all. Having no other alternative is not a position, its a farce. When a country maintains the right to test, it is not taken seriously as anti-proliferation or anti-nuclear weapons. India is simply emulating the US in its duplicitous stand. We've always maintained that the elite club's position is discriminatory and now what we've done is gone and joined that club!\n\nI also think that US will have a primary role in shaping the Nuclear shopping market for India's equipment and supplies. Consider the US record, India's position as well as the immense pressure the US put on the NSG last month to approve India. These are clear indicators of typical US foreign policy where they are accumulating "favors". They'll want their primary role in it and claim it. You'll see how the next few months play out. I'll mine some historical examples of past promises of US foreign policy and how this is similar.\n\nI agree that India should work towards ways of getting closer to America, but there are better ways to trade and achieve growth which do not necessarily have to go through the US military complex.